Philosophy of probability
 
 
 
 




My views on the philosophy of probability are contained in a book "The Search for Certainty. On the Clash of Science and Philosophy of Probability".
  • Free preview: preface, contents and introduction (PDF, 191kb).
  • Visit the book Web site at World Scientific and buy the book.
  • The book is also available at Amazon.
  • See my blog related to the book. The blog contains a list of errata for the book.
  • See Larry Wasserman's review of my book. The review contains a crystal clear summary of the main ideas in my book.
  • The following quotes come from Adrew Gelman's blog.
    • Larry Wasserman: "I think this is an interesting and important book."
    • Larry Wasserman: "Burdzy makes a convincing case that the philosophy of probability is a complete failure."
    • Andrew Gelman: "Chris: I am in complete agreement with your claim that the theories of von Mises and de Finetti completely fail to describe what statisticians actually do."
  • Christian Robert quotes my asertion that "the original theories of von Mises and de Finetti are completely unrelated to statistics" in his review of my book. He calls it "appealing" because he believes that "[...] their philosophical theories have not had a lasting impact on statistics."
  • A.I. Dale writes in the Math Review (MR2510150) of the book: "[...] there is much to absorb, but the careful reader will find considerable food for thought here."
 
 
 
 

The slides of the October 23, 2006, talk at the Department of Statistics, University of Washington, "De Finetti's ultimate failure": PowerPoint, PDF.

The slides of the October 13, 2008, talk at the Department of Statistics, University of Washington, "Philosophy of probability and its relationship (?) to statistics": PowerPoint, PDF.

I find the following "new prisoner's paradox" and its follow-up dealing with some ethical questions entertaining.

An "insider trading paradox" is based on a similar probabilistic idea but does not have much philosophical significance - I consider it an interesting textbook example.

Last modified: September 9, 2011, 15:14        Bookmark and Share